New Season, New Dawns

Ready or not, the new Premier League season has arrived. As I write this, one of the teams clearly not ready for the new season is hosting Fulham at Old Trafford. It's already clear that Manchester United won't be in the title mix, but they should do better than last year. Instead, it's their cross-city rivals who are favourites for an unprecedented fifth consecutive league title.

Manchester City look slightly more vulnerable this year. They won the title last season but were rarely impressive when doing so. They've lost some key depth in Julian Alvarez and still don't have any clear alternatives to Rodri or Erling Haaland. Then there is the long-awaited hearing into their 115 charges of financial irregularities. A points deduction would take them out of the title race. Any other outcome would galvanise them, likely helping them on the pitch. When it comes to Man City, the biggest questions are off the pitch rather than on it.

Arsenal will once again be the leading title contenders. They look a much stronger team than this time last year, They were the best team in England between January and May, but a poor December left them too much to do in the title race. This time, they start with a more solid foundation, particularly following the signing of the breakout star of the Euros, Ricardo Calafiori, as well as the return of Jurien Timber following his ACL last season. Questions still persist about their depth in attack and the lack of backup for Bukayo Saka. If they can rotate Saka more this season, then they will be able to wrestle the title away from Manchester.

The Pretenders

It's probably a season too soon for Arne Slot's Liverpool to be challenging for the league title. Jurgen Klopp is a hard act to follow, but he has left a good inheritance for his successor. The squad has been refreshed over recent transfer windows, with the Liverpool midfield evolving in a direction that better suits Slot's possession-based approach rather Klopp's heavy metal football. A lack of consistency in front of goal cost them last season. They dropped points in the run-in because they didn't convert their chances. Given the lack of reinforcements at Anfield, that habit will cost them a chance at the title. They should still easily qualify for the Champions League spots though.

Last season, fourth place ended up being a straight head to head between Tottenham and Aston Villa. They'll both be in the mix again. Villa have the squad depth to cope with a Champions League run. However, a few key areas may cost them at the end of the season. The loss of Douglas Luiz to Juventus is a massive blow for them, that is partially offset by the signing of Andre Onana from Everton. Their defence struggled at times during the run-in, so they will need to tighten up at the back in order to maintain the success of last season. They have plenty of depth going forward but need to rotate Ollie Watkins more. He played too much last season. Keeping Jhon Duran will help significantly in achieving that objective.

Tottenham also have issues at the back. Dominic Solanke will help them take more chances up front. Richarlison simply isn't available enough to do that, which cost them last season. In midfield, the young duo of Lucas Bergvall and Archie Gray look ready for the Premier League. Bergvall may help mitigate an overreliance on James Maddison, as does the shift of Dejan Kulusevski to a more central position. It's further back where changes need to be made, given their poor record from conceding set pieces. If they can fix that problem, they should be able to pip Villa and Man United for fourth place.

The Outsiders

I do expect Manchester United to be in the mix for top four this season. Better luck with injuries will see to that. The signing of Noussair Mazraoui to reinforce the depleted full back positions may prove to be critical. Further forward, United have plenty of options that they need to combine into a cohesive attacking unit, as well as a functional press. They did achieve the latter last term, if not the former. They were let down by poor finishing last season, and there is little evidence of that changing so far this time out. More control in possession and a more functional press will help cut down on the crazy high number of chances conceded, which looks more realistic. I expect United to qualify comfortably for Europe, but I'm not sure they have enough cohesion or quality for top 4. Don't rule it out though.

Newcastle should do better than last year. The extent of last season's injury crisis was truly remarkable, and a lack of European interest will help. The spine of the team remains, and the return of Sandro Tonali will provide additional reinforcement. Qualifying for the Champions League two years ago was a massive over achievement. They have an excellent first team, but the squad is overall weaker than the teams I've covered already. If one of the other big teams has an off-year then Newcastle will capitalise. However, weaker depth means that a genuine top four push looks out of reach. Sixth or seventh place looks to be likely, and hopefully a return to Europe.

Chelsea will do worse this year. After a slow start, they finished last season strongly. If they had backed Pochettino, then a push for top four looked likely. Replacing Pochettino with the unproven Enzo Maresca looks like a mistake that will cost them a European spot next season unless they can win the Europa Conference League. A bloated squad will need to be cleared out before the end of the transfer window. Questions remain about the actual ability of their squad as well. Too many of the youngsters don't look up to the level required. Pochettino eventually found a stable first eleven, and it will take Maresca time to do the same this season. There are also questions about Maresca's adaptability. In the Championship, Maresca's Leicester team struggled to adapt when the opposition finally worked out how to stop them. That won't be a problem for a while, but it may become an issue when Chelsea do finally click. Either way, I don't think Chelsea will be consistent enough to finish above the more settled squads of their peers.

The Other 12

In terms of relegation, many people are already predicting a repeat of last season. The comparisons are hardly unfair. The Leicester squad is notably weaker than the one which got them promoted, just like Sheffield United. Much like Burnley, Southampton have a manager wedded to a possession based style of football, but they simply aren't good enough at this level to get results using that style. Meanwhile, Ipswich never expected to be here in the first place and don't have the required quality.

The difference is that I expect Southampton to sack Russell Martin when results start to go against them. Meanwhile, Leicester have a manager who is adaptable and can get results from a squad which has a smattering of Premier League quality players. Finally, Ipswich have recruited well and should be competitive. I do expect one of those teams to stay up - my head says Southampton will survive, while my heart says it will be Ipswich who escape.

Either way, it should be an interesting battle for relegation, with one of last season's midtable teams likely to fall into the relegation mix. All the midtable teams have suffered key departures, and there is always one who fails to adapt. Forest have the most continuity, which should see them move up the table at the expense of the weaker teams around them. As for the surprise package, everyone is expecting it to West Ham for a reason. They have invested the Declan Rice well and will challenge the teams above them.